The Big One: The One We've All Been Waiting For

This is it. These next four games will decide the Cubs' season. If they get swept, they're 3 games down on Milwaukee. If the Cubs sweep, they have a 5 game cushion, and magic number of 49. I know that nobody really cares about the magic number in July, but in my opinion, once it gets under 50, you should start to pay attention. A Brewers sweep would put their magic number at 50.
Tonight's game is at 7:05 CST. Lilly vs. Sabathia. As a Brewer, Sabathia has made 4 starts, and gone 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA. He has logged 33 innings, struck out 31 and allowed only 5 ER.
In Lilly's last 4 starts (3 since the Sabathia trade), he has gone 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA. He has gone 21.2 innings, struck out 20 and allowed 10 earned runs.
If the Cubs can get to Sabathia early (Soriano first pitch homer?), then the Cubs can win. Otherwise, no.